📖 SCENARIO PLAYBOOK

IF THIS HAPPENS → DO THIS — Decision Trees for 10 Crisis Scenarios
Last Updated: April 30, 2026

⚠️ How to Use This Playbook

Each scenario has four action categories: Immediate (minutes to hours), Financial (hours to days), Physical (days to weeks), and Communications (ongoing). Pre-read all scenarios. When one triggers, you don't think — you ACT.

📉 Scenario 1: Market Drops 20% in a Week Probability: 35-45%

🔴 Immediate (0-24hr)

  • Check stop-losses — should already be set
  • Verify FSCS coverage across all bank accounts
  • Withdraw £500-£1,000 physical cash from ATM
  • Top up vehicle fuel tanks
  • Cancel any non-essential large purchases
  • Review physical prep inventory (food, medicine)

💰 Financial (24-72hr)

  • DO NOT panic-sell quality holdings (SHEL, BA, EDV)
  • Review crash shopping list — prepare limit orders
  • Buy Shell at £24-26, BAE at £16-17 if hitting targets
  • Add to gold/silver if they pull back 10%+
  • Check gilt yields — if 30Y hits 6%+, consider locking some
  • Move 5-10% more to cash as dry powder
  • DO NOT buy crypto yet — it falls harder

🏠 Physical (1-2 weeks)

  • Accelerate food storage — buy 2 extra weeks of supplies
  • Fill heating oil tank if not already full
  • Stock up on medicines — request GP emergency supply
  • Buy additional fuel containers and fill them
  • Check generator/power station charge

📻 Communications

  • Check in with family/emergency contacts
  • Monitor Manx Radio 89.0 FM for local updates
  • Watch for ferry disruption alerts
  • Subscribe to BoE/FCA emergency alerts
  • Avoid social media panic — stick to verified sources

⛽ Scenario 2: Oil Hits $150+ Probability: 20-30%

🔴 Immediate (0-24hr)

  • FILL ALL VEHICLE TANKS IMMEDIATELY
  • Fill all fuel containers to legal limits
  • Fill heating oil tank (call supplier NOW)
  • Withdraw cash — fuel shortages = ATM runs
  • Buy additional long-life food (prices will rise)
  • Reduce non-essential driving immediately

💰 Financial (24-72hr)

  • ADD to energy positions (Shell, BP) — they rally on oil spikes
  • Check gold — will likely rally on inflation fears
  • REDUCE exposure to airlines, logistics, consumer discretionary
  • Increase foreign currency allocation (USD)
  • Short diesel-dependent stocks if possible
  • Hold off buying bonds — inflation = yields rising

🏠 Physical (1-2 weeks)

  • Minimise all non-essential travel
  • Identify car-share opportunities with neighbours
  • Consider work-from-home if possible
  • Stock up on food with long shelf life (prices will jump 10-20%)
  • Insulate hot water cylinder and pipes
  • Lower thermostat by 2°C to conserve heating oil

📻 Communications

  • Monitor fuel price apps and local station status
  • Check gov.im for fuel rationing announcements
  • Coordinate with neighbours for bulk fuel/food buying
  • Watch Steam Packet for fuel surcharge increases

🏦 Scenario 3: UK Bank Failure Probability: 10-15%

🔴 Immediate (0-24hr)

  • DON'T panic — FSCS covers £85K per institution
  • Check ALL bank accounts — spread above £85K immediately
  • Withdraw cash from non-FSCS institutions first
  • Move deposits to multiple FSCS-protected banks
  • Check if employer's bank is affected (salary risk)
  • Check direct debits and standing orders

💰 Financial (24-72hr)

  • Move any cash >£85K to new institutions urgently
  • Buy gold — banks failing = system trust collapsing
  • Check NS&I (100% government-backed, no FSCS limit)
  • Reduce counterparty risk in investments
  • Sell financial sector stocks until clarity emerges
  • Hold cash — wait for system stabilisation

🏠 Physical (1-2 weeks)

  • Ensure physical cash reserves are adequate
  • Pre-pay any critical bills if banking is uncertain
  • Check if mortgage provider is affected
  • Keep paper records of all transactions
  • Stock additional food/supplies (supply chain disruption)

📻 Communications

  • Monitor FCA and BoE announcements continuously
  • Check FSCS website for compensation process
  • Inform family of banking situation calmly
  • Watch for rumours — don't spread them

🚛 Scenario 4: Diesel Shortage / Rationing Probability: 25-35%

🔴 Immediate (0-24hr)

  • FILL vehicle tanks and ALL fuel containers NOW
  • Top up heating oil if separate system
  • Check generator fuel supply
  • Minimise all driving — essential trips only
  • Check if local fuel stations have supply

💰 Financial (24-72hr)

  • Buy energy stocks (Shell, BP) — benefit from shortage
  • Buy refinery stocks if accessible — crack spreads soar
  • Sell logistics/transport stocks
  • Hold gold — inflation hedge
  • Reduce discretionary spending budget

🏠 Physical (1-2 weeks)

  • Coordinate with neighbours for shared transport
  • Check ferry schedules — diesel = ferry fuel
  • Stock up on food — trucks need diesel
  • Identify local food sources (farms, markets)
  • Consider reducing thermostat to conserve heating oil
  • Plan for potential generator fuel rationing

📻 Communications

  • Monitor gov.im for fuel rationing rules
  • Check Steam Packet for service reductions
  • Coordinate transport sharing via local networks
  • Monitor Manx Radio for emergency fuel updates

⛴️ Scenario 5: Ferry Service Suspended Probability: 15-25%

🔴 Immediate (0-24hr)

  • Check food inventory against 2-week minimum
  • Check medicine supply — all chronic medications
  • Withdraw cash (ATMs may run low)
  • Top up vehicle fuel (imported by ferry)
  • Verify important mail/parcels — any critical deliveries?
  • Contact anyone expecting to travel to/from island

💰 Financial (24-72hr)

  • Limited financial impact if short disruption (days)
  • If extended (weeks+): local inflation will spike
  • Buy local food producer stocks if available
  • Hold positions — don't trade during island isolation
  • Check if any subscription deliveries affected

🏠 Physical (1-2 weeks)

  • Ration food based on known inventory
  • Prioritise medication — stretch if possible (safely)
  • Conserve fuel — ferry disruption = fuel shortage follows
  • Build community networks for resource sharing
  • Grow sprouts for fresh food (sprouting seeds)
  • Check water supply — dependent on imported treatment chemicals

📻 Communications

  • Monitor steampacket.com continuously
  • Check Manx Radio 89.0 FM for updates
  • Sign up for Steam Packet SMS alerts
  • Coordinate with UK mainland contacts for supply
  • Check air bridge options (Ronaldsway Airport)

⚡ Scenario 6: Extended Power Grid Failure Probability: 10-20%

🔴 Immediate (0-4hr)

  • Confirm it's an outage (not just your property)
  • Switch off all non-essential electrical equipment
  • Use torches — NOT candles if possible (fire risk)
  • Check on elderly/vulnerable neighbours
  • Start using freezer food within 24-48 hours
  • Charge phones from power banks / car inverter

💰 Financial (24-72hr)

  • Minimal financial action needed for short outages
  • If extended (days+): check bank app access via mobile data
  • Keep cash for purchases (card machines won't work)
  • Monitor grid restoration news via radio
  • Buy utility/infrastructure stocks after restoration

🏠 Physical (1-7 days)

  • Run generator in well-ventilated area ONLY
  • Conserve power station for phone charging and essentials
  • Move fridge food to cool box, then consume
  • Use camping stove for cooking (NOT indoors with carbon monoxide risk)
  • Gather in one room to conserve heat
  • Use hot water bottles for warmth
  • Turn off main water valve if pressure drops (contamination risk)
  • Check Manx Radio 89.0 FM for restoration timeline

📻 Communications

  • Battery/wind-up radio is primary information source
  • Mobile networks may have backup power (limited hours)
  • Text messages use less battery than calls
  • Check on elderly neighbours — priority welfare
  • Report outage to Manx Utilities (if phones work)

🏛️ Scenario 7: Sovereign Debt Cascade Begins Probability: 40-55%

🔴 Immediate (0-24hr)

  • Check gilt yields — is UK 30Y above 6%?
  • Is LDI crisis unfolding? (BoE intervention signals this)
  • Check all bank FSCS limits — spread deposits NOW
  • Withdraw 2 weeks physical cash minimum
  • Verify gold/silver is physically accessible (not in vault with access risk)
  • Check pension fund — may have heavy gilt exposure

💰 Financial (24-72hr)

  • SELL long-duration bonds (capital loss accelerating)
  • BUY gold heavily — Dalio's #1 recommendation
  • Move 20%+ to foreign currency (USD, CHF, EUR)
  • REDUCE financial sector exposure
  • Hold defensive stocks (defence, energy, gold miners)
  • Wait for bond yield PEAK, then lock in long-duration
  • Prepare to buy equities at generational lows (patience)

🏠 Physical (1-4 weeks)

  • Full food storage push — prices will rise with currency
  • Stock up on ALL medicines for 3+ months
  • Fuel tanks full at all times
  • Check passport validity (may need to travel urgently)
  • Secure physical gold/silver storage at home
  • Consider pre-paying major bills (utilities, insurance)

📻 Communications

  • Monitor BoE emergency announcements
  • Watch CDS spreads daily — widening = cascading
  • Track which countries are affected (Italy, France?)
  • Subscribe to IMF, BIS, ECB alerts
  • Prepare for potential capital controls

💷 Scenario 8: Currency Crisis (GBP Crash) Probability: 15-25%

🔴 Immediate (0-24hr)

  • Exchange GBP for foreign currency WHILE rate still viable
  • Buy gold immediately (GBP-priced gold will spike)
  • Withdraw cash — ATM runs follow currency crashes
  • Check mortgage — if variable rate, fix NOW
  • Cancel overseas travel bookings (unaffordable)

💰 Financial (24-72hr)

  • Move 20-30% cash to USD, EUR, CHF accounts
  • Hold physical gold — GBP price will soar
  • Hold exporters (FTSE 100) — they benefit from weak GBP
  • SELL importers and domestic consumer stocks
  • Check overseas investments (unhedged = GBP gains)
  • Consider NS&I index-linked certificates

🏠 Physical (1-4 weeks)

  • Food and fuel will jump in price — stock up NOW
  • Imported goods (most things on island) will skyrocket
  • Buy spare parts, tools, anything imported before prices rise
  • Consider bulk buying with neighbours
  • All the standard physical prep — it just got more urgent

📻 Communications

  • Monitor BoE for emergency rate hikes
  • Watch GBP/USD and GBP/EUR real-time
  • Check foreign exchange availability
  • Alert family to currency situation

🍞 Scenario 9: Food Shortage Probability: 15-30%

🔴 Immediate (0-24hr)

  • GO SHOPPING — buy rice, pasta, canned goods, oil IMMEDIATELY
  • Check what's available before shelves empty
  • Contact local farms/food producers
  • Check freezer and pantry inventory
  • Fill water containers (food processing needs water)
  • Buy pet food — often first to sell out

💰 Financial (24-72hr)

  • Buy agriculture stocks (fertiliser, seeds, equipment)
  • Buy food commodity ETFs if accessible
  • Avoid restaurants/food service stocks
  • Reduce discretionary spending to fund food stockpiling
  • Consider local food investment opportunities

🏠 Physical (1-4 weeks)

  • Ration food — plan meals carefully
  • Start sprouting seeds (fresh food in 3-5 days)
  • Use freezer food first, then canned, then dried
  • Coordinate with neighbours for shared cooking
  • Grow quick vegetables (radishes, lettuce — 3-4 weeks)
  • Check on elderly neighbours who can't shop

📻 Communications

  • Monitor gov.im for food distribution points
  • Check Manx Radio for supply ship updates
  • Coordinate with local community groups
  • Report price gouging to authorities

💀 Scenario 10: Full Systemic Crash Probability: 5-10%

🔴 Immediate (0-24hr)

  • GET CASH — as much as ATMs allow before they empty
  • GET FUEL — fill everything before stations run dry
  • GET FOOD — buy everything you can carry
  • GET HOME — safest place in systemic crisis
  • Check on ALL family and neighbours
  • Tune to Manx Radio 89.0 FM immediately
  • DO NOT panic — follow the playbook

💰 Financial (24-168hr)

  • Hold gold and physical assets — paper wealth at risk
  • DO NOT sell quality assets at the bottom
  • Wait for central bank intervention (QE, emergency lending)
  • When intervention comes, buy aggressively:
  • → Index funds at 40-50% discounts
  • → Quality stocks at P/E <12
  • → Bonds at peak yields (6-7%+)
  • → BTC at 60%+ discount
  • Patience — the bottom takes 1-3 months to form

🏠 Physical (1-8 weeks)

  • Full crisis mode — ration everything
  • Community coordination essential
  • Barter economy may emerge — have tradeable goods
  • Cash, fuel, food, medicine, cigarettes (tradeable) are currency
  • Protect your home and property
  • Stay informed via radio (internet may be down)
  • Help neighbours — community is survival
  • Consider growing food long-term (seeds, garden)

📻 Communications

  • Battery radio — primary information source
  • Two-way radios for local coordination
  • Signal flares / bright cloth for emergency visibility
  • Pre-arranged meeting points with family
  • Emergency services: 999 (UK standard)
  • Manx Radio: 89.0 FM — official emergency channel