Recommended portfolio allocations shift based on which scenario unfolds. Current baseline assumes ongoing Iran/Hormuz disruption + sovereign debt stress building.
| Asset Class | 🟢 Normal | 🟡 Current | 🔴 Crisis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Short-term | 5-10% | 15-20% | 25-35% |
| Physical Gold/Silver | 10-15% | 15-20% | 20-30% |
| Equities (Defence/Energy) | 25-30% | 20-25% | 10-15% (add at lows) |
| Equities (Grid Super-Cycle) | 10-15% | 15-20% | 5-10% (add at lows) |
| Bonds (Short Duration) | 15-20% | 10-15% | 5-10% |
| Bonds (Long Duration) | 5-10% | 0-5% | 0% |
| Crypto (BTC only) | 3-5% | 1-3% | 0-2% |
| Foreign Currency | 5% | 10% | 15-20% |
In a crisis, cash is king. ATMs and digital banking can fail. Hold physical cash AND accessible digital reserves.
Gold at $4,554/oz, silver at $71.89/oz (April 30, 2026). Both near all-time highs. Dalio recommends gold for sovereign debt scenarios.
| Metal | Price | Target Alloc | Verdict | Buy Zone | Sell Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | $4,554/oz | 15-20% | HOLD & ADD | Dip to $4,000-4,200 | Above $6,000+ (take 10-20%) |
| Silver | $71.89/oz | 3-5% | HOLD & ADD | Dip to $55-60 | Above $100+ (take 10-20%) |
| Gold/Silver Ratio | ~63:1 | — | Ratio <50 favours gold; >80 favours silver. ~63 is neutral. | ||
Based on wartime stock picks (April 26) + grid super-cycle watchlist (April 29). Max 5% position, max 2 per sector.
| Stock | Sector | Verdict | Price (Apr 26) | Entry Strategy | Stop Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shell (SHEL.L) | Energy | STRONG BUY | ~£29 | 50% now, 30% on pullback to 200DMA | £24 |
| BAE Systems (BA.L) | Defence | STRONG BUY | ~£18.50 | 50% now, 30% on confirmation | £15.50 |
| Endeavour Mining (EDV.L) | Gold | BUY | ~£22 | 50% now, 30% on pullback | £17 |
| BP (BP.L) | Energy | HOLD/BUY | ~530p | 50% now, add on Hormuz escalation | 420p |
| RTX (RTX) | Defence | BUY | ~$183 | 50% now, 30% on pullback | $155 |
| Fresnillo (FRES.L) | Silver/Gold | HOLD | ~£10.50 | 50% now, 50% above $80 silver | £8 |
| Rolls-Royce (RR.L) | Defence | WATCH | ~£7.80 | Buy if score ≥11 | £6 |
| AeroVironment (AVAV) | Drones | WATCH | ~$220 | Small on DAWG contracts | $175 |
| Cameco (CCJ) | Uranium | WATCH | ~$52 | Add on uranium breakout | $40 |
| Yellow Cake (YCA.L) | Uranium | SPECULATIVE | ~£9.50 | Small, pure uranium play | £7 |
| Stock | Theme | 6mo Return | RS | Verdict | Ideal Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PWR (Quanta) | Grid Builder | +43% | -58 | BUY ON DIP | $220-240 |
| POWL (Powell) | Components | +110% | 236 | BUY ON DIP | 8% pullback |
| VICR (Vicor) | Components | +175% | 562 | HOLD/SMALL ADD | 8%+ pullback |
| SNDK (SanDisk) | Storage | +202% | 1660 | WATCH | 10%+ pullback |
| BE (Bloom Energy) | Off-Grid | +105% | 1896 | HOLD | Significant pullback |
| AGX (Argan) | Grid Builder | +113% | 717 | WATCH | 10%+ pullback |
UK 30Y gilt at 5.70% (EXCEEDS Oct 2022 LDI crisis peak). Rising yields = falling bond prices. Avoid long-duration.
| Bond Type | Yield | Verdict | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| UK Long Gilt (30Y) | 5.70% | AVOID | LDI risk. Yield could spike further. Capital loss risk. |
| UK Short Gilt (2-5Y) | ~4.5% | SMALL HOLD | Short duration limits loss. Recovers faster if yields spike. |
| US Treasuries (10Y) | 4.36% | WAIT | If hits 5%, consider locking in. Wait for peak yield. |
| Floating Rate / Linkers | Variable | PREFER | Rate resets protect. ILGs hedge inflation. |
| Corporate High Yield | OAS 2.84% | AVOID | Spread too tight. In 2008, OAS hit 10-20%. |
| EUR Sovereign (Germany) | 3.08% | WATCH | Safer than UK. Consider for EUR diversification. |
BTC at $76,174. -39.6% from ATH. NOT acting as war hedge — falling with risk assets. Bitcoin Season active.
| Asset | Price | Verdict | Buy Zone | Sell Zone | Key Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | $76,174 | WAIT / SMALL DCA | $65-69K / $57-65K (Oct low) | $100K+ (take 20-30%) | 1.5-2x market beta downside |
| TAO | ~$245 | WATCHLIST | $180-210 / $150 aggressive | $400+ (12-18mo) | 25.2% inflation, high BTC beta |
| ETH/Alts | — | AVOID | N/A | N/A | Only buy AFTER BTC >$84.5K |
GBP vulnerable in UK fiscal crisis. Diversify 10-20% of liquid reserves into foreign currencies.
| Currency | Verdict | Why | Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD | HOLD 5-8% | Safety in crisis but US debt risk rising (CDS 34.6bps) | 5-8% reserves |
| EUR | HOLD 3-5% | Germany relatively stable. Accessible for ferry/travel | 3-5% reserves |
| CHF | HOLD 2-3% | Ultimate safe haven. CDS only 8bps. Historic stability | 2-3% reserves |
| JPY | WATCH | Carry trade unwind could strengthen JPY. But CDS +40% | Speculative only |
When markets drop, quality assets become cheap. The key is knowing WHAT to buy at EACH level. Don't catch falling knives — wait for volume climax and stabilisation.
| Topic | Key Points | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Capital Gains Tax | CGT allowance £3,000/year (2026). Gains above taxed at 18% (basic) / 24% (higher rate). Losses can be offset against gains. | Harvest losses in downturn to offset future gains. Bed & ISA/Bed & SIPP within allowances. |
| ISA Allowance | £20,000/year. Tax-free growth and dividends. Use it or lose it. | Max out ISA each year. Move high-growth positions into ISA wrapper. |
| Gold (Physical) | Physical gold sovereigns/Britannias are CGT-free (legal tender). Other gold bars/coins subject to CGT. | Prefer sovereigns and Britannias for UK tax efficiency. Kinesis/Glint are NOT CGT-free. |
| Silver | Physical silver is subject to CGT. VAT was charged at point of sale for UK coins/bars. | Hold silver in ETF form (VAT-free) or accept CGT on gains. |
| Crypto | Treated as property for CGT. Each disposal is a taxable event. Staking rewards = income. | Track all transactions. Use software (Koinly). Consider SEIS/EIS for tax relief if available. |
| Collectibles | Gold coins (legal tender) exempt. Other collectibles CGT at 18/24%. Antiques, art, wine = collectibles. | Gold sovereigns/Britannias are the UK investor's best tax-efficient store of value. |