Four forces driving silver: COMEX price, US Dollar, Fed policy & central bank buying
🏦
Central Banks
1,244t
2024 net buying
15+ years net buyers
Bullish
How the Four Forces Drive Silver
💵
Dollar Down
Cheaper silver for foreign buyers → more demand
↑ Silver
💵
Dollar Up
More expensive for foreign buyers → less demand
↓ Silver
🏛️
Fed Cutting
Lower real yields → holding silver costs less → buyers step in
↑ Silver
🏛️
Fed Holding/Hiking
Higher real yields → holding silver earns nothing → sellers win
↓ Silver
🏦
CBs Net Buying
Central banks accumulating gold → signals distrust in fiat → lifts all metals
↑ Silver
🏦
CBs Net Selling
Central banks offloading gold → negative signal for precious metals
↓ Silver
🪙
Silver Price
Above MAs = uptrend momentum • Below MAs = selling pressure
Trend
🏛️ Federal Reserve Policy
4.33%
Fed Funds Rate (midpoint)
On Hold
The Fed has held rates steady at 4.25–4.50% since December 2024. Market expects potential cuts later in 2026 if inflation continues cooling. Each 0.25% cut is bullish for silver (lower real yields = cheaper to hold non-yielding assets).
🏛️ Central Bank Gold Buying
1,244t
Net Purchases 2024 (tonnes)
Net Buyer
Central banks have been net buyers of gold for 15+ consecutive years. 2022-2024 saw the three highest years of buying on record (~1,082t, ~1,037t, ~1,244t). This is the strongest sustained accumulation since the 1960s. Key drivers: de-dollarisation, geopolitical hedging, and diversification away from US Treasuries.
Country
Holdings (t)
Net Change (t)
% of Reserves
Source: World Gold Council / IMF IFS • Last updated: Q1 2026
Gold / Silver Ratio
—
Historical average ~65. Above 80 = silver undervalued vs gold. Below 50 = silver overvalued.
Silver 52-Week Range
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Current position within the 52-week trading range.
📉 Silver Moving Average Position
📖 How to Read This Indicator
Bullish signal: Silver above its moving averages + Dollar weakening (below its MAs) + Fed cutting rates + Central banks net buying. Three or four aligned = strong conviction.
Bearish signal: Silver below MAs + Dollar strengthening + Fed hiking or holding tight. Three headwinds = selling pressure.
Mixed signals: Common — e.g. Fed cutting but dollar rising. In mixed setups, the trend (silver vs its MAs) usually wins in the short term, while the Fed/dollar dynamic plays out over months.
Gold/Silver Ratio: When the ratio is above 80, silver is historically cheap vs gold — a buying opportunity. Below 50, silver has run ahead of gold.
10-Year Yield: Falling real yields (after inflation) are silver's best friend. If 10yr yields drop while inflation stays sticky, silver gets a double tailwind.